Dash vs. Nizar, 2023 NHL Draft and Tim Stützle Value: Pronman’s Mailbag

The NHL The season is just around the corner, hockey has already started in other leagues. I asked you whatever was on your mind and did my best to answer!

Chicago It is mainly traded Kirby Dash for Frank NazarI wonder who do you prefer and why? – Brady S.

Great question from Brady! On a surface level, Dach is clearly a better hockey player. He’s a lot bigger, not as good a skater as Nazar but not too far, and although Nazar is more competitive, Dach has a natural offensive touch. Dach was the #3 choice for a reason. He’s a rare combination of tools between his structure, his feet, his skill, and his vision in the middle.

Dach is far from perfect. There is a reason to trade it Chicago. He’s a very frustrating player. Back in his recruiting season in 2019, it was inconceivable how a player with his tools, who played as much as he did for Saskatoon in the WHL, could barely pass a point per game as a youngster. He could dominate a game, as he did in the first round of his playoff series that year, and had an extension where he earned three points in 14 games.

He can be a frustrating player and I understand why Chicago would want to move forward with what looks like it’s going to be a long and painful rebuilding of Chicago. They can turn back the clock a little bit, and get Nazar longer, years cheaper.

With all that said, I still prefer the Dach, even with its flaws. You trade this player and will basically try to replace him soon after (ie with Adam Fantilli in the next draft). Nazar is a great player, but Dash can be a real center in the first line if you can get him right.

Basically every port I’ve read on hockey talks about how to load the next draft with high-level talent. Not because I doubt them but that really surprises me given that almost all of these possibilities would have lost a year of development due to COVID-19. Is this just a pure chance or do you think it’s talking about how personal training and skills training can be more beneficial for a young talent to excel than mostly snowboard action games? – Christian B.

I’ve been doing this for a while and have heard this song a lot. I feel like I’m answering some repetition about how amazing the next draft is every summer. We know very little about these players. There are signs on it could Be a strong class, especially in the future, but a lot will change between now and June, and until then we won’t know! That won’t stop me from giving my opinion though.

How many potential customers and which ones specifically will they make red wings full time this season? – Chris C.

Simon Edvinsson I think he was between 50 and 50 years old. Jonatan Berggren has an outside opportunity but perhaps more than a summons. I think most potential clients have a better chance of being called up due to injury or performance than stealing a camp veteran’s job. I could have seen defensive guys like Donovan Sebrango or Albert Johansson or Jared McKissack get games if the guys came down for example.

When you think back on the highly-rated prospects that didn’t make it to the NHL, what stands out? Is there a mental aspect? Is this trait underappreciated/difficult to evaluate? – John D.

There is no single real reason. Sometimes you’ve mistuned skills. Sometimes there were external variables that interfered (eg bad luck). I find a disproportionate number of times there is a mental/personal issue. I’ve grown to appreciate why many of the NHL sources I’ve spoken to insist on high profile guys, because they’ve either been burned by this problem so many times or have seen others get burned.

What are your thoughts on the many Canadian potential clients who chose the USHL path to the NCAA before they were drafted (Owen Power, Adam Fantelli, Maclean Celebreni, etc.)? When does CHL hit the panic button, and what can they do about it? – Logan H.

It was previously going on a decent amount prior to the 2005 CBA. Playing the USHL during COVID-19 may have been a moderating factor, but it may just be a cycle ending soon. Time will tell.

Your thoughts on how much money they give these (IMHO) unproven young players these days? Tim StutzelRob Thomas, Thompson’s crownetc. – Dennis D.

Since both players are tied to similar AAV contracts of eight years and $8 million, who has a better chance of saving surplus value on this contract, Jack Hughes Or Tim Stutzel? – Kirby C.

I’m combining the two questions above because they touch on similar topics. In general, I have no problem with these deals. It is a two-way risk. Yes, deals can go badly for clubs if players don’t develop well, but they can go very well for clubs.

Look at Carolina’s signature Jacob Slavin For his seven-year deal worth $5.3 million or its equivalent in local currency roman joussi He signed his seven-year $4 million contract after the entry deal. I remember those contracts, particularly those of Josie, who were criticized in some corners of the internet and obviously the teams were laughing all the way to the bank by the end.

From the players’ perspective, they might leave a little more money on the table for their UFA years, but turning down this foolproof dough is hard to do!

I think it’s very likely that Hughes, Stutzel, Thomas and Thompson will all be worth their deals, even if it’s not immediately for some of them. The Thompson deal in particular seems to have been chopped up, which is strange to me. I’m not expecting 38 goals again, but he’s a huge center with great skill and can tear it down. He’s not a blazing player, but he looks like a really good player to me and could be an excellent second midfield position for a while sitting around 28-32 goals over an 82 game pace. Is that worth $7 million today? Maybe not? In three to four years for sure. I love him and Dylan Cousins Much buffaloPositions No. 1 and No. 2 in the future.

I would also like to take Hughes over Stützle; My U-23 rank said just as much. However, I don’t mind Ottawa You make that deal when you see how many great players have come out of this club over the years. A high-end young talent you want to commit to for eight years? You can throw it a few hundred thousand to sweeten the pot.

After the first partial season, do you think Matt Boldi Has a chance to be an elite striker? His points in every game were very good. you said that Minnesota It has a lot of quality prospects But none of them are elite. What do you think would be a standout player if his tools were fully developed? Thanks Corey! – Brian T.

I think Boldy has the potential to be an NHL All-Star, even if I view him as a strong first line player and understated. He is very skilled and smart and he did well as a professional. I wouldn’t be surprised if, by this time next year, I’ve moved on to that show, but because of his skating I want to wait a bit before calling him a real star.

Poldy died. (Matt Beloit/USA Today)

Any guards in the next draft? – Colton S.

Michael Hrabal looked legit in Hlinka Gretzky. I think he’s a top two pick of the day as long as his USHL season is going well enough.

Usually the debate between college and juniors is that players get more off-ice training in college, but have more gaming experience when juniors. Do you see this reflected in the prospects? In other words, do college prospects look like they are in better shape while CHL players have better hockey sense/instincts? – Ryan B.

I’ve seen a lot of guys go through those levels and I don’t really think it makes much of a difference. Make a call based on what you and your family want, but if you think there’s a distinct advantage in hockey depending on the player’s style or talent level, you probably think too much about it.

Do you expect Simon Nemec To start the year with demons or in AHL? Do you think there is a path for him with the big club this year and what production can we expect from him? – Dominic C.

I would give him another year out of the league, although I don’t think it’s crazy to be in the NHL right away. I would like to see him develop a little more physically and play in the AHL, as it would be a huge leap from the Slovak League one. In terms of production, it will be interesting a few years from now how playing time in New Jersey is divided. nemec, Doji Hamilton And Luke Hughes all have legitimate claims to be a PP1 guy. Do they manage two defensemen on the upper unit in time?

Everyone is talking about 2023 being a pioneering project in the NHL – Conor Bedard, Matvey Michkov and possibly Fantilli, and quality prospects deep in the first or maybe even the second round. But what’s new in 2024? I haven’t even heard of the possibility of 2024 with Shane Wright level potential. Is there a chance that 2024 will be at least as good as 2022 on average? Or should we all fall asleep in 2024 and wait until 2025 when Michael Mesa could prove to be a big star in waiting? – Glenn M.

Yes, I wouldn’t say there is a real possibility of 2024 yet. I think the internet would say Finn Aaron Kiviharjo, who is very smart and a great skater. But it’s hard to say the 5-foot-9 defenseman (Kiviharju) is the expected first pick unless he blows the doors over the next couple of years. Macklin Celebrini looks like the number one guy to me, but I honestly don’t know what 2024 will look like. That’s what next season will be.

In terms of eligibility for 2025, I only watched them at the Under-17 camp in Canada, but 2025 teammate Roger McQueen twice looked like Misa was in that event.

Corey, from an analytical perspective, what kind of information do you value most to help you make decisions about upside and future expectations? – Matthew M.

Data at lower levels is still limited, even if it is growing. There are third parties tracking partial stats now, but whether they have predictive value to drop on the NHL is something that still needs to be studied. We know that scoring correlates with NHL dropping, and we also know that scoring adjusted for variables such as age, league quality and team quality correlates with NHL dropping. In short, I’m looking for anything that could refer to:

1) Skill level (usually shown in the ability to score).

And the …

2) The ability to play levels (usually seen in how he performs in higher paced/more difficult environments).

Do you think this is the beginning of the return of the Slovak hockey game or is it a fun moment? Will we see Slovakia finally beat its rival Czech Republic and challenge the Big Five? Will we see NHL teams dedicate more resources to exploring the Tipos Extraliga? – Justin B.

It’s probably just a passing picture, as with the German course we’ve seen for a few years and now they’re back to make us watch the shocking age groups. However, for those countries, even a photoshoot like the one they’ve been through can be a game-changer. You have been watching Germany in the world championships for the past few years, and while they are not real contenders, it is not very easy to add additional real players and change the look of the candidate lists.

Do you think Luke Hughes has the tools to be an overall better player than his brother Quinn? – Stephen K.

I don’t know anything better, but a similar kind of pure talent level I can tell, albeit it shows in a different way because Luke is much bigger but Quinn has a more offensive touch in the playmaking industry.

Thanks for all your great work, Cory. Is there a potential center there Notice can be obtained realistically Nils Lundqvist? – Tim K.

I know it’s become a fan favorite so try not to get out of my head to suggest this to Ottawa fans, but I think swapping Ridly Greig for Lundkvist would make sense for both sides. Ottawa has its future centers (Stützle, Josh NorrisAnd the Shin Bento) and the need for another legitimate defenseman among the first four of that great group they are building. My guess is that while I rated Lundkvist a little ahead of Greig, Ottawa wouldn’t, because Greig is the type of player they value much more than a smaller offensive defensive man who doesn’t have a sophisticated drive.

(Top photo: Kirby Dash: Raj Mehta/USA Today)

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