MLB Picks: Best Bets in Padres-Mets Wild Card Series 3 on Sunday

The 2022 Major League Baseball Playoffs are approaching. This means many things to many people, but among a certain subset of sports fans, we now have more than a month of playoff gambling considerations. We’ve had a very profitable ride the last two seasons, so let’s make it three in a row in the black.

I came out the other side of a grueling regular season on SportsLine at +582 per season. I was over +1000 at some point and it dropped annoyingly close to even, but I’ve had a few times late. It was a roller coaster, but in the end, a solidly positive season turned out to be a success. Game selections will remain for SportsLine subscribers.

Here, we’ll focus on totals (over/under) and player props. We had a bad start, but we are responsible and we will continue to follow. It’s -183 so far in the transition from 3-5. Today was 1-3 and Saturday 2-2, so we’ll keep things going in a positive direction.

There is only one match on Sunday, so everything Padres in mets.

Over 6.5 runs (-125)

The playoffs so far have delivered their fair share of low-goal affairs, but this series has been a huge hit in both games, with each team putting in one effort out of seven rounds. We’ve seen eight home runs, with Padres providing five of them.

Both beginners here are capable in Chris Bassitt (15-9, 3.42) of Mets and Padres All-Star Joe Musgrove (10-7, 2.93), which is why we get the coveted total here. It doesn’t even have to be high scores, because something like 4-3 or 5-2 gives us a winner.

Bassett is also inconsistent. He’ll throw some gems, but he’ll also get mixed up in failed wolves. One of them came against Padres earlier this year, when he coughed seven runs in eight strokes in 3 1/3 innings. Musgrove, in and of itself, had a poor outing against the Mets, allowing four runs in five strokes in 5 1/3 innings at Citi Field on July 24.

Even if the freshmen do well, I would expect both offenses to work hard in the early turns and not run a deep ramble like Yo Darvish in Game 1.

Padres’ Bullpen worked really hard in Game 2 and it’s not good or deep. At the Mets’ end, Edwin Diaz threw 28 shots and had to come out for a second turn of action after waiting through the Mets’ long run in the dugout. Adam Ottavino threw 35 shots and looked really shaky. They hardly trust anyone else.

I’m not saying we’re in an offensive deluge. Possible Bassett-Musgrove deal. We don’t need one. I like a combined effort of at least seven runs.

I think we’ll see at least an appropriate number of kicks, and that’s my choice for the most likely to score. Lindor swings really well at the moment and is out of a two-stroke game in which Homes had to start scoring. He doesn’t run as much as he used to, but he has stolen 16 bases this season and Padres is brutal against the stolen base. They allowed 89 this season in 102 attempts, which is good for the league’s worst 13 percent caught stealing. The Mets are a 3 vs 3 steal so far in the series.

Also, Lindor is 6 for 17 (.353) with .389 on a percentage basis and two Homer against Musgrove in his career.

Josh Bell, under 0.5 hits (+120)

Bale had much better post-season swings, including a massive blast on the opposite field in the first game from Max Scherzer. He’s still only 2 vs 8 in the series and has only reached 0.92 in the regular season after the Padres took him through the trade. He has gone uninjured in nine of his last 12 games. Since he had success in both of his first two games, I’m just playing the odds here.

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